UFC 253 - Adesanya vs Costa

 

Ok, here we go with another prediction. You have to be careful with these because it's important to try and not let bias get the better of you. With that being said, the last two prediction pieces I've written were laced with at least some semblance of bias but I managed to pick the correct winner both times, so I must be doing something right, right? Also I'll be real. I'm only here to talk about Adesanya and Costa because I have absolutely no interest in the 205lb division since Jon Jones vacated the belt, but hey, for the sake of it, Blachowicz by 3rd round TKO.

Anyway, let's talk about a serious division. This is really a special fight. In prospect of course. I feel like I have to cover my back after Adesanya vs Romero. This is most excited I've been about a fight since Gaethje vs Ferguson. What we have here is a contest between two of the three best fighters at 185. An arrogant pressure fighter with genuine one shot KO power and underrated craft. A brash, slick, supremely talented kick boxer, who might be the best striker in the UFC today. I personally have a lot of questions about this fight. What if Costa's power is too much? Will Costa's cardio hold up? Can Izzy circumvent Costa's pressure? I honestly don't have a concrete answer to any of those questions. None of us do. So, like all predictions I have to operate off of hypotheticals and past evidence. 

The media have done their best to paint this fight as a ''Bull vs Matador'' type contest. That sentiment is kinda reductive to me but there is some validity to it at its core. Costa is a pressure fighter, so yes, of course he's gunna come forward and look to throw hard and often but he's more than just a bull in a china shop. A good understanding of distance, an educated jab, a psychotic commitment to attacking the body and footwork. Footwork is a definitive wrinkle of his game; he excels at cutting off the cage and likes to use his lead hand and rear leg to punish his opponents when they try to exit. Best example of this is his fight against Uriah Hall. Uriah tried to pump his jab and spin off the cage to stifle Costa's pressure, Costa did well to use a double forearm guard to neutralise the jab and step deftly into the pocket, often pinning Uriah onto the cage and ripping, body, body, head, body etc. In open space, the rear body kick was money for Costa, Uriah was retreating backwards whenever it was thrown, making it easier for Costa to pin him. I could write pages and pages about Costa's fight with Romero. But I'll spare you guys. What I will say is this, if you get a minute, go watch that fight an pay attention to Costa's counter punching and footwork. It's a testament to Costa's skill and IQ that he was able to keep a monster like Romero up against the cage for such long periods of the fight. Costa possesses a deep, dangerous offensive toolbox despite constant bleating about his ''raw power'' and ''size''. Having said that, do I think he's as skilled as Adesanya? No. Do I think he'll win this fight? No. I just want to give him more credit for his actual skill because it's important that we realise the legitimate threat that he poses to Adesanya. 

So, as I literally just detailed, Costa is a good craftsman who can cut the cage very well, it just so happens that Adesanya is a master at keeping his back off of the cage. Adesanya understands position, leverage and movement as well as anyone in the sport. He knows that a fighter with his back on the cage is compromised. It zaps your movement, stunts your ability to generate power and makes exiting hairy exchanges or alleviating pressure near impossible. Adesanya has amazing anticipation and is a sniper on the counter, he is very comfortable when his opponent forces engagement. Romero fight aside, the last two fighters Adesanya fought, though dangerous, do not possess the same cohesive pressure system as Costa. For instance, Costa rarely leaves himself in-advantageous positions ripe for counters and such. Romero had to run through bricks and cement to land anything significant. He does not lose his footing or over shoot on his punches very often. Adesanya has elite lateral movement and a refined ability to exit and weave through exchanges with pivots, deft steps and angular retreats. The Whittaker fight was a showcase of some great head movement from Adesanya. My only issue is that he did sometimes compromise his position and leave his chin in the air, leaning more towards reaction and timing than cohesive defensive tactics (eg. a high guard), a more disciplined and sound pressure tactic and perhaps a committed body attack might have found Whittaker some joy and funnily enough, those are two of Costa's strengths. 

Alright so let me round this off and just give my final prediction. Costa, a fast starter comes out hot. He walks Izzy down and lands, maybe not at a super high clip but enough to make Izzy be wary of his power. I can see two of the first three rounds maybe going to Costa, with Izzy having success of his own of course, landing, perhaps drawing out over shot punches and throwing the cues into his database. I see Izzy taking over late and winning this on the cards by the tune of 48-47, in a highly competitive fight that'll see both men take significant damage. So, Adesanya by Unanimous Decision. 

Written by @Atlas8sp