UFC Fight Night - Holloway vs Rodriguez

Ok so UFC 268 happened last week and it was an amazing card. Admittedly I should have given you guys a breakdown/prediction for such a stacked card, but it was my birthday week and productivity was at an all time low. Still though, I hope everyone reading this enjoyed that event as much as I did. 

Moving on from one of the best events of the year, we relocate to Las Vegas where my favourite fighter in the UFC is set to make the walk for the second time this year. This weekend we are being treated to a main event of Max Holloway vs Yair Rodriguez in the featherweight division. If you’re familiar with these pieces then you have an idea of what’s about to come next. 

My prediction

Right so here we have the best pressure boxer in MMA against a dude with limited defensive footwork and a shallow boxing arsenal. The fighters that have beaten the best version of Max Holloway have been able to out position him in the pocket and at range (Volkanovski) or stunt his rhythm and pressure with powerful counters and leads (Poirier). Rodriguez doesn’t posses the footwork or the power to combat what Max does best. Korean Zombie was able to land whatever he wanted on Rodriguez on the lead and on the counter with little to no set up at times. Max is the best in the world at using jabs, feints and throwaways to draw out responses then capitalising on your habits. Against Kattar he constantly fenced and pawed with his jab not only to set up his offence, but to force Kattar’s high guard then punish him for his high guard with body work. 

Rodriguez does posses some tools that could unsettle Holloway though. Up until his last two fights, Holloway struggled with any low kicking attack that had some coherence. With a fighter like Rodriguez, you have to be wary of his kicking arsenal as it's his most potent offensive weapon. He throws kicks from all angles at all three levels from both stances. He was able to pick off the likes of BJ Penn and Jeremy Stephens with relative ease as they allowed him to roam in the mid range and throw his kicks with no consequence for the most part. My thinking is that Max will force Rodriguez to go backward. It's hard to maintain a meaningful kicking game off your back foot so expect Max to pressure and keep the fight exclusively in the pocket/mid range to mitigate what Rodriguez does best. It's also worth noting the level of competition that both men have faced. The best fighter Rodriguez ever fought, brutally finished him. The second best fighter he ever fought took him to the absolute brink of his physical capabilities. Max has arguably fought a higher level of competition than anyone in MMA history. Experience could play a role here and it's also worth noting that Rodriguez hasn't fought in over two years.

Rodriguez' only route to victory is a flash KO. He does not have the phase to phase technical depth or application to consistently take rounds from Max. Max is very positionally aware, defensively sound and as durable as any fighter in the world so I reckon a flash finish is out of the question anyway. I think this one will be ugly from the outset. Sort of like Max's fights against Ortega or Kattar. Or somewhere in between. Rodriguez will have his moments no doubt; the nature of Max's offensive game puts him in danger at times and Rodriguez is too explosive and crafty to not capitalise a few times. All in all I don't see anything other than a dominant performance closed out by a late finish. Max will dictate the distance with his footwork and his jab, draw out responses and mistakes from Rodriguez and pepper him with shots to the head and body. I would also expect to see Max go back to front teep and side oblique kick he uses so well. These will help him build up damage to Rodriguez's body and lower half, which will mitigate his kicking game ever further. 

Holloway by round 4 T/KO

Written by @Atlas8s on Twitter