UFC 247: Jon Jones vs Dominick Reyes
Jones vs Reyes
Where and how do I think the fight could be decided? How does Reyes Win?
To me, Reyes is not a world beater by any stretch, but that doesn't mean he doesn't posses a tool or two. He is a good athlete, which plays into his pressure, high-ish volume style. As far as 205ers go, he has decent boxing and counterpunching. He also has genuine one punch KO power and if given the openings he can make a habit of throwing leg kicks, something that we've seen unsettle Jones (see the Thiago Santos fight). His ability to box and throw leg kicks is where he can win this fight. For as consistent and dominant Jon has been, a glaring hole in his game has always been his boxing. Whether at range or in the pocket, his mechanics, both offensively and defensively have always been below par, poor even. Not to mention his inability to establish any sort of rhythm with his punching patterns. While it has been such a weakness, we've rarely seen it exposed because fighters could never make him box and if they ever managed to close the distance and try to make him sit in the trenches, he'd either clinch with them or just stick his lead hand out and leave. Some fighters like DC (in the rematch) and Gus (the first time) have been able to use pressure, in DC's case or Jon's bad footwork (Gus) to sit in the pocket with Jon just long enough to clip him with meaningful shots. If Reyes does close the distance, he does risked being fucked in the clinch. Despite Jon's recent performances I do think he still possess his dominant clinch game. If for whatever reason he can't get it going, it's unlikely that Reyes will be as gunshy as Smith or blow his knees out like Santos and if Jon is forced into a plan B or C he could find himself in an offensive caul de sac. I'm not picking against Jon just yet, believe me. But listen to me when I say this: be on upset alert.
How does Jon win?
For his technical holes, Jones' fight IQ and ability to follow a game plan are as good as anyone in the sport. Reyes moves relatively well laterally in between his strikes and Jon's footwork when trying to cut off the cage isn't anything to write home about, so he could face some issues there. But we did see in the Volkan fight that Reyes is quite vulnerable in the clinch and if Jones is still what I hope he is, then he's still the best clinch fighter I've ever seen. If Jones can clinch Reyes and win the close quarters exchanges, whether that be by securing takedowns or using his leverage to fire off his elbows, he'll ride that method to a fairly comfortable victory. Throughout his career, Jones has also been able to circumvent pressure by using kicks to stunt the forward progress of his opponents and maintain distance. If Jon can keep his striking varied and use his kicks to pin Reyes back early, he could well take Reyes into deep waters. Jon would easily have the upper hand here, being as experienced in title fights as anyone ever. Experience, fighting within his means and exploiting his technical advantages are where the keys for victory lie today for Jon Jones.
My pick
I think that this is the first time since the DC rematch that Jon has been truly motivated for a fight. It's also the first time since that same fight that as a fan, I think Jon has a legit chance of losing. I think he has a genuine dislike for Reyes and that could lead to a more aggressive approach, different to what we saw in those dismal 2019 fights. Even if you count what was turned into a No Contest against DC, he only has 2 finishes in his last 8 fights. Now even though I'm not someone that places a lot of stock in finishes, that is kind of glaring when you consider he had 8 finishes in the previous 9 before that. So what do I see happening tonight? Maybe it's hope because I'm such a fan of Jon, but I see a return of the Lion. my pick for tonight's main event is Jones by R4 TKO.
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Written by @AtlaslaMaquina on Twitter
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