UFC 249: Tony Ferguson vs Justin Gaethje

I've never been more excited about anything combat sport related in my entire life. We're literally looking at one of the deepest cards in MMA history. With 9 fights on the Prelims and Main Card, 8 of those 18 fighters have fought for or held a UFC title. We also have maybe the best pure boxer at 145 (Kattar) and a genuine all time great 185er (Jacre) even if he is dwindling. It's also a card that comes with title implications in the company's two best divisions (155 and 135). I'll be having a look at just the main event in this piece though. (Having said that. My dark horse on the card is Calvin Kattar vs Jeremy Stephens. Those who plan to tune into UFC 249, watch out for that one)



Not the original plan

Khabib vs Ferguson was scheduled and cancelled for the 5th earlier this year. We all know why so I won't get into that. Who knows though, maybe it was a blessing in disguise? As much as I love Khabib, stylistically Gaethje is a more exciting opponent for Ferguson. Tony has 12 straight wins with 8 finishes. His best wins coming against RDA (who had only just dropped the title to Alvarez) and an ascending Kevin Lee. Outside of those two wins I don't really see much in his record. Barboza is an explosive kicker and has a good body attack but is limited in his grappling, defence and boxing. Other notable wins include Cowboy: a perennial big fight choker, Anthony Pettis: who's  4-7 since his 5 round trouncing against RDA and Josh Thomson, who had his best years behind him by the time he'd fought Tony, granted, he still managed to take everything Tony had for him. Don't get me wrong, I'm not about to get on here and act like Gaethje's record is sterling. However against common opponents (Cowboy and Barboza) Gaethje put in much more dominant and convincing performances. Outside of those two wins, Gaethje has another pair of UFC KO wins (one of those against the last man to beat Tony) to go along with two KO losses, albeit against two of the top four 155ers of all time.



The company's best Fire Fighter 

So what does Justin Gaethje do well? For one, he's one of the best boxers in the division. Does he get hit a lot? Yes. Can you name me a pressure fighter in MMA that doesn't get hit? Probably not. His comfort under fire is one of the most significant wrinkles of his game and a prerequisite for a pressure fighter. He can create defensive shells, weave and counter punch while under duress at a world class level. A prolific leg kicker, his NCAA Wrestling background has also gifted him with an educated clinch game and hand fighting ability that he often uses to manufacture openings for his offensive boxing. His pocket game is up there with the very best, he can initiate and dictate close quarter exchanges and his footwork and feints allow him to both cut the cage off and close the distance. Some MMA fans who don't know any better like to label him a reckless zombie. Like I already said, he does get hit but a lot of the damage he takes comes from the aforementioned exchanges. In open space he is very hard to get a beat on. You can't win every exchange, especially when you're fighting against crafty, powerful offensive boxers the likes of Poirier and Alvarez.


El Cucuy 

''So and so could fight 8 5 minute rounds'' is an overused cliche in MMA when talking about guys who have elite cardio. I'm here to tell you that in Tony Ferguson's case, that definitely isn't a just a cliche. A fellow excellent collegiate wrestler, Tony isn't to my eyes the most technical striker. His style is supported by his cardio, length, durability and prolific grappling. His opponents often have issues with his volume. He uses a high variance, high pressure style to unsettle his opponents on the feet and if the fight goes to the ground he's comfortable off his back or on top. He even takes it there himself quite often. A choke specialist. He does also have the ability to turn fights into straight up wars of attrition. His durability allows him to take damage in order to deal out his own and there aren't a lot of guys who can keep up with him in this situation. The 2nd round against Cowboy being a prime example of this. I don't want to come across as if I'm saying that Tony has no defence at all. He does sometimes use on his reflexes and IQ to see shots and roll with them. So even when he is getting hit at times, guys seem to be catching him on the end of their strikes. He has a fair bit of power and his ability to take the sting off of in coming strikes and out land his opponents help him make up for how hittable he is (although I do have to mention and give him credit for the head movement he showed against Nijem and RDA in particular).

How does this fight go? My prediction 

Alright so here's what I think. Trying my hardest not to be long winded. I think there's absolutely zero chance that this fight goes the distance. I mentioned Tony's grappling earlier and while he's elite in that respect, I don't think he'll take that approach so I'm assuming he won't. I see this being a stand up fight for the most part. For all the weapons Ferguson possess, I think his defensive weakness will be thoroughly exposed by Gaethje. Tony often initiates exchanges without any idea of how to dictate their length or even defend himself from counters, relying on instinct and his durability to survive return fire. Even though moves well at times, he does move with his chin up and hands down. He also has a habit of throwing naked strikes on lazy entries, leaving himself vulnerable for counters (go re watch the first 20 seconds of the 2nd round of the Pettis fight). Sloppy footwork, poor defensive positioning post/during striking at mid range and inside. Having your chin up in the air. Initiating and leaving exchanges without a guard... these are thing's you definitely want to avoid against a fighter of Gaethje's mould. Tony has been guilty of all of these things pretty much every time I've seen him fight.  Depending on your opinion of RDA at the time of their fight, you could argue that Gaethje will be the best fighter Tony has fought. So this is what happens: Gaethje stays at mid range and closes the distance when necessary. He touches Tony's legs hard and often. Tony will come forward but the more volume he exerts the more openings he'll leave for Gaethje. The more pressure Ferguson puts the more outlandish his striking gets, which has even more of a detrimental effect on his exits and footwork. Against Cowboy he was literally leaving exchanges with his back turned to him because his strike selection was leaving him in awkward spots in the pocket. That kind of carelessness is suicide against Gaethje, the hardest puncher in the division. Gaethje will stick behind his quasi shell, leg kicks and use his feints to get to his spots and ultimately use those pocket exchanges he loves so much to his benefit. He'll hit Tony at will once he's there. Now I won't ignore that Gaethje has been finished brutally in the last few years. Twice. The reason why I'm not paying much attention to that is because I don't think Ferguson is capable of replicating what Alvarez and Poirier did. Alvarez was able to manipulate Gaethje's guard and use a devastating body attack to wear him down. Poirier too was able to manipulate Gaethje's guard and being such a talented boxer, he managed to get the better of many of their close quarter exchanges. He also found a home for his straight left off of Gaethje's leg kicks (this was the exact counter strike that started the finishing sequence). Alvarez and Poirier were able to solve the puzzle but took career changing damage in doing so. Both Gaethje and Ferguson have a good chance of taking a similar dose of damage this weekend, but in this kind of fight I have to side with Gaethje. He's the more disciplined striker, he's better defensively and he's got a significant power advantage (among everything else I went through). Justin Gaethje by 3rd/4th round KO in the potential fight of the year.





Written by @Atlas8SP

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UFC 249 this weekend - 05/10/2020 01:00 BST (Prelims)
                                                           03:00 BST (Main Card)