UFC 254 - Khabib vs Gaethje
On Saturday night we’re back in Abu Dhabi for UFC 254 and what should be yet another spectacular card in the making on the now famous ‘Fight Island’. The main event will determine the undisputed champion in the UFC’s lightweight division, where the current UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov is set to take on the interim UFC lightweight champion Justin Gaethje, in what is most should go down as the biggest fight of this year. To mark the occasion, friend of the podcast, Ivan was kind enough to collaborate with me and share his thoughts on how he thinks today's main event will go.
Before I go on, we have not dived into the co-main, which will be an amazing fight in its own right. Cannonier is a very calculated striker with real power and finishing instinct, but Whittaker is just better. He is the best defensive fighter in the sport and has the cleaner striking, footwork and fight IQ. The spotlight won't phase him, and even though I do believe attrition and brutal booking has left him a far cry from what he was in 2016-18, he is still the 2nd best middleweight in the world. So, Whittaker by lopsided unanimous decision.
Now let's talk business.
Ivan's pick:
First we’ll start with the challenger on the night, Gaethje. Gaethje’s currently on a four fight win streak dating back to August 2018, winning all of them via stoppage – three of which were first round KOs – and this streak culminated in the five round clinic he put on Tony Ferguson back in May, where he handily outclassed and finished him to be crowned the interim lightweight champ. Prior to joining the UFC in 2017, Gaethje was renowned for his aggressive style, heavy hands, powerful leg kicks and entertaining fights and he’s definitely stayed true to such reputation. However, over the past 18 months, Gaethje’s become a far more patient and much less chaotic fighter with his approach – utilising his deadly leg kicks to slow down his opponents and then calculating when to engage in exchanges and pick his spots with his powerful boxing – and he’s reaped the rewards for it.
In Khabib Nurmagomedov though, Gaethje will be facing the ultimate test in MMA. Khabib is the best combat grappler in the sport currently, and has a strong case for being the greatest that we’ve ever seen in the sport, and a puzzle that nobody’s been able to solve as of yet as he sits with a flawless 28-0 record, notably coming off of back to back submission wins over Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor. Khabib puts a unforgiving amount of pressure in his offensive approach, constantly working for takedowns attempts – predominantly from grappling positions against the cage – and once he manages to get a takedown, he’s relentless with holding position and punishing his opponents with his ground and pound and/or working for submissions once his opponent begins to wilt under the suffocating tempo Khabib puts on them.
Ultimately, Khabib will understandably enter the octagon on Saturday night as the favoured fighter but that’s not to say that Gaethje doesn’t stand a chance or he won’t be able to test him. For me, I think we know how both fighters will be approaching this fight – Gaethje will be doing his utmost to ensure this fight is on the feet for as long as possible and, on the other side, Khabib will look to find avenues to engage in grappling exchanges and look to takedown Gaethje at any opportunity. As a result, Gaethje’s best chance of success lies in how he’ll use his leg kicks in the fight and working his boxing in early as he has the power to make Khabib think twice about engaging in such exchanges – and the 2nd round of Khabib’s fight vs Poirier can give him confidence in that regard. However, I have to side with the dominant and seemingly unstoppable force that is Khabib - he’s managed to impose his will and style on every fighter he’s faced and has dealt with two elite strikers in Poirer and McGregor relatively unscathed and his grappling is simply in a different stratosphere, there’s no way in my mind that Gaethje avoids getting taken down and once Khabib’s got you down it’s curtains for that round. I feel that Gaethje will fade in the later rounds and Khabib will stop him in the 4th round.
Pick – Khabib Nurmagomedov via SUB R4
Atlas' pick:
Ivan has done a great job of dissecting a lot of the nuances behind this contest, especially in regards to Khabib's style/approach, so allow me to just add some thoughts.
Gaethje is a blistering power puncher and has the most brutal leg attack in the sport. To be as simple as possible, this fight comes down to two questions: 1. How much damage can Gaethje do while the fight is standing and 2. When Gaethje gets taken down, how quickly can he get back up? Gaethje has wrestling chops, yes. But this is MMA, not the NCAA. Outside of an aberration against Tibau, Khabib has mauled and ragdolled everyone he's fought with relative ease. There are certain fighters that you just don't want to cross in certain areas, no one wanted to box with prime Jose Aldo, no one could clinch with Jon Jones in his prime and currently no one can grapple with Khabib, possibly the best combat grappler we've ever seen in MMA.
Ivan touched on how Gaethje has adjusted his style since he's come to the UFC. Long gone is the reckless pressure fighter who made his bones from offensive pressure, durability and breaking guys by constantly initiating and suicidal exchanges. Hes now matured into a backfoot slickster who builds his attacks off leg kicks, deft footwork and carefully managing pocket exchanges both on the lead and counter. With the advantage he has in the striking department over Khabib, he might do better to go back to his ''roots''? I think Khabib would have more trouble with Gaethje if the latter pushes the pace and tries to hunt him down, similar how he fought Alvarez and Poirier, especially cos Khabib does not posses the craft, power or striking IQ to systematically stifle Gaethje's pressure the way they did. Khabib also isn't as polished or prolific a wrestler in open space and does not have the defensive layers to deal with Gaethje if he decides to pressure.
Of course, like every prediction it's purely speculation. I can only make a prediction off of what I've seem and what I haven't seen is Khabib have to fight someone who is committed to pressuring him. Gaethje very might well be the first guy to ever truly put leather on him and what happens if he gets hurt? How does a guy who's lost one round in 28 pro fights respond to adversity? It's reductive to say and it's been the case with pretty much everyone Khabib has fought, but if Gaethje can somehow keep this fight standing for long stretches then he has a huge chance to win. Khabib has barely been hit so do we really know how durable he is? Dozens of pro fights and a history of injuries and bad weight cuts can't go ignored. No one Gaethje has fought, win or lose has left the cage without withstanding career changing damage.
Everyone knows how big of a Gaethje fan I am, so I definitely do have a dog in this fight. My intention here is to inform and give the the most accurate prediction based on what I believe and what I've seen from both fighters. Khabib pushes a pace unlike any other fighter in the sport, has cardio in droves, is as strong as a bull and has mental toughness far ahead of 99% of those who have ever fought in MMA. Gaethje will put up a good fight, he'll do some damage to Khabib but in the end I feel as though Khabib will just keep coming and coming until Gaethje eventually wilts. So yeah, the smart money is to bet Khabib. But fuck that. Gaethje is my guy and I'm riding with him till the wheels fall off. Call me crazy if you want.
Pick - Gaethje by 3rd round T/KO
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