UFC 257 - Poirier vs McGregor

This weekend we're being ''blessed'' with a rare appearance from Conor McGregor. He takes on fellow top contender Dustin Poirier in the main event of the first pay per view UFC event of the year. A re match from their 2014 fight that was won pretty comfortably by KO by McGregor. 

Following that fight, McGregor sky rocketed to stardom, having captured both titles at 145 and 155 by finishing both Jose Aldo and Eddie Alvarez, two bonafide all time greats. Dustin Poirier has also had quite the run too. His three fight win streak of Alvarez, Justin Gaethje and Max Holloway is as impressive of a three fight run as there ever has been in MMA. Both fighters come into this fight with questions, what shape is Conor in? Does Dustin have too many miles on the clock? I'll do my best to dissect and predict how this fight will go, I'll start with having a look at the co-main event, which also promises to be very good contest. 

Dan Hooker vs Michael Chandler 

Michael Chandler signing with the UFC came with a lot of interest from the MMA world. A former Bellator champion - it goes without saying that Bellator fighters don't usually do too well in the UFC. Even Eddie Alvarez for all his greatness went 4-3 in the UFC, former Bellator champions are a combined 21-27 in the UFC, there's a clear talent gulf even if Scott Coker doesn't want to admit it publically. 

Anyways, I think Michael Chandler is gunna fall on his face in the UFC. He's a super durable, athletic wrestle-boxer with serious power. I just think he lacks the quality to hang in the UFC, let alone the most talent rich division in the company. His boxing isn't bad but it's not great either. He can shift between stances and his jab is useful at the very least. He does struggle against athletic out fighters. Will Brooks did a good job of using his jab to draw out and counter off lazy shots from Chandler, who's entries aren't the cleanest anyways. His athleticism does a lot to mask where he may be lacking in timing and technique. 

Dan Hooker is a proper contender and his last few performances have shown that he isn't out of place at the top end of this division. A long, rangy outside kick boxer with honest power and good output. He mixes up his attacks very well and has a really nice jab. Chandler will give him many opportunities to jab, Hooker would do well to use the jab as a bait for Chandler's counters as he tends to telegraph a lot of his attacks. I also think Hooker has the awareness and footwork to keep his back off the cage, thread his jab, kick Chandler's legs and throw combinations when Chandler's entries leave him out of position. Chandler also tends to over extend on his punches to close distance, Patricio Pitbull did a wonderful job of keeping Chandler at distance and catching him with overhand rights when he overextended on his jab before knocking him out. Hooker has a jab, he has power, he kicks legs actively, he isn't lazy when setting up his strikes and he has one of the best coaches in the world. I like Hooker in this fight, he has more experience against elite competition than Chandler does and I think his tools are better suited to funnelling the fight where he needs it to be. Gaethje should fight the winner of this contest regardless, but I'm going with Hooker to pull this one out.

Dan Hooker by R3 KO 

Dustin Poirier vs Conor McGregor

The Diamond vs The Notorious pt.2. I'm really looking forward to seeing this fight. because I'm interested to see where both men are at this point in their careers. This is a high stakes contest with obvious title implications. I personally don't think Khabib has retired for real. He is still listed as the lightweight champion and he hasn't withdrawn from the USADA testing pool. I think he'll for sure have one more fight and his next opponent could easily be the winner of this fight. 

Anyways. 

Two genuine all time great fighters. Two amazing offensive boxers with contrasting styles, an out fighting sniper against a high volume pocket brawler. They both have legit KO power but Conor is the more accurate striker and the more polished and willing kicker. He probably has the best distance control in the sport, his footwork, counter striking and understanding of position is some of the best you'll ever see. I think where Dustin will have the biggest issues with Conor is in the mid range where he'll give Conor more than enough chances to lay him out. He is as comfortable in the pocket as anyone alive, but he has difficulty at range, which is where Conor excels. He also has a tendency to square his hips and/or lose his footing when shifting or trying to gain position in close. Michael Johnson KO'd him with a gorgeous check hook off his entry in their fight. Keep an eye on this because he's a southpaw like Conor. Dustin is also sometimes too content with allowing himself to be backed up to the cage and outside of an active-ish high guard he doesn't boast much in terms of defence. Holloway and Hooker both had a lot of success with touching his body and Conor is no slouch when attacking the mid section. Not only does he use his kicking game to manage range, he can also attack the body with his kicks and does so with volume whenever he chooses to (go watch the Chad Mendes fight).

To be blunt, if Dustin isn't already shot then he's close. He was never the most durable guy, he's been knocked out a few times and that's before we get into the fights he's had in the last three years or so. Even though he was able to beat Gaethje, Holloway and Hooker he took life and career changing damage in all three of those fights. That along with the hip and shoulder surgery he had last year gives me cause to pause when I consider his long term future in this sport. I truly believe he'll be retired before the end of 2022. Stylistically this isn't the best match up, rangy, powerful counter striker who's stopped him in the past. It's because of this that I can't look at this fight and see anything than Conor leaving him out cold once again. Is Conor the most durable? Does Conor have the best gas tank? That's up for you guys to decide but what I will say is that I trust Conor more than I trust Dustin to go out and fight the correct fight. Conor's control of range, power and superior footwork will be the deciding factors. I just feel as though he'll catch Dustin out of position too many times for Dustin to handle. The fight will be competitive for as long as it lasts... and hey, if Dustin can get past the second round then this fight suddenly becomes 1000x more interesting. That's a big if though. Title fight for the winner, I guess.

Conor McGregor by spectacular 2nd round KO

Written by @Atlas8s