UFC 273 - Sterling vs Yan

Admittedly, the headline for this piece is misleading. Aljamain Sterling vs Petr Yan for the Bantamweight championship isn't the main event for UFC 273, but it's the most compelling fight on the card and the one I want to focus on today. The actual main event features The Korean Zombie challenging Alexander Volkanovski for the title at 145, in a fight I expect the former to lose quite badly. Max Holloway is the only 145er in the world that possesses the physicality, technical depth and craft to at best, match Volko and even he came relatively unstuck in two fights against him. So what chance does a defensively shallow action fighter like TKZ have? Next to none. The fight will be exciting while it lasts but I expect Volko to finish him within the first four rounds.

Onto the fight in focus, which features the best fighter alive in Petr Yan. The first fight between these two was a great watch while it lasted, Sterling came out fast and established a high pace, attempting to mitigate Yan’s high guard with unorthodox volume and draw responses with committed hand fighting. One issue with this method was that Yan consistently pairs his high guard with sound defensive footwork and upper body movement, this meant that the majority of Sterling’s volume was being parried, slipped, landing on Yan's guard or just plain missing. The hand fighting did have brief moments of success as it forced Yan to abandon his high guard in spots, but it also gave Yan a gauge for where Sterling was distance wise, which is golden for a practitioner of the high guard as the technique is inherently reliant on counter punching at midrange and in the pocket, two areas in which Yan has a significant advantage over Sterling, evidenced by Yan dropping him with a straight right in what seemed like the first time he got a clean look at him in the pocket. Sterling's pace and volume along with Yan's and patience meant that Sterling got the better of the first few frames, but what began to follow became the story of the fight until it finished. It seemed as though Sterling wanted to keep Yan, a measured pressure fighter on his on heels and going backward. Forcing him to go back would in theory not only stymie his pressure game, but also give Sterling grappling opportunities along the fence, which is where many people pre fight believed Sterling had the advantage. When Sterling did manage to get Yan along the fence the difference in their grappling and physicality was shocking. Yan easily stuffed takedowns, fought grips and controlled wrists in the clinch to the point where Sterling got little to no change out of the Russian in an area where he was supposed to have the upper hand.

As the fight wore on, Sterling’s commitment to volume and Yan’s sharp body work tired worked in concert to tire him out, as Yan built and became more aggressive, clearly winning the fight in all phases until the illegal knee in round 4. So these two rematch later on tonight and I don’t see any indication of the fight looking any different than it did the first time. Except maybe more one sided in favour of the Russian. Yan is the best in-fight adjuster in the sport and now he’s had a full year to prepare for Sterling after fighting with him for about 19 minutes.  He’s mastered the method of exploiting his opponents weaknesses and taking advantage of his strengths, ie. Using constant feints and throwaways to make an older Aldo spend energy on reactive defence, or negating Rivera’s low kicking game by walking him to the fence and limiting his space. Sterling on the other hand has found most of his success in the UFC through the same high pace game he attempted in the first fight, Muhnoz and Rivera couldn’t deal with his pace and output and Sandhagen couldn’t keep him off his back when push came to shove. Petr Yan has not only demonstrated his ability to do both of those things, but also an ability to punish him for trying. I would like to approach this from both sides and detail a path for victory for Sterling, but outside of a freak flying knee or head kick KO or a Hail Mary type submission attempt I don’t see a way the undisputed champion wins this. Yan will likely start slow while the smart money says Sterling will attempt to flood with volume once again. I expect Yan to weather the storm, stifle most if not all of the takedowns and counter Sterling at will. I anticipate most of this fight will take place in the midrange, with Sterling trying to flood the space between them as much as possible. Eventually, like the first fight Petr Yan’s superior technical depth, craft and durability will take over as Sterling tires, and once again he’ll punish Sterling in all phases until he finishes him, within the rules this time. So, to wrap this in a bow, Petr Yan by 4th Round TKO

The main card for UFC 273 starts at 3am (UK time) 

Written by @Atlas8s