UFC 280 - Oliveira vs Makhachev

 

It’s UFC weekend! This one has all the makings of an all time great card, and thank God for that because some of these recent events have been DIRE. In this piece I’m gonna be looking at the three fights at the top of the card, lemme know what you guys think on twitter @Atlas8s 

Now, to the predictions - 

Petr Yan vs Sean O'Malley

I wanted to go in depth on this but I’d be wasting time breaking down what I think is a complete mismatch. Sean O’Malley is a good fighter who does a lot of things well, he’s long, has crisp striking and deceptive power. He’s fighting Petr Yan, who I think is at worst, one of the 4 best fighters in the world (Volk, Usman, Mighty Mouse, Yan). 

O’Malley will try to use his height to stay at range and pick and pot-shot at Yan from where he believes he’ll be safe. The thing is, his defensive toolbox is way to shallow to deal with what Yan is capable of. Munhoz and Vera were able to lace O’Malley with leg kicks at will and Kris Moutinho (who isn’t very good) was able to get to him with mindless volume. This is honestly just a case of O’Malley running into that next level of fighter that he just isn’t ready for yet. I get it, you have to make the step up eventually but this is too soon. 

Petr Yan has some of the best pressuring footwork and mechanics in the sport, he’s a master at cutting off the cage and attacking to the legs and body when his opponent tries to escape. He has KO power in both his hands and he’s arguably the best clinch fighter in the world. He’s a perfect offensive fighter who just so happens to be an A+ athlete and tactician and he’s fighting against a fragile, inexperienced kickboxer who can’t grapple. I expect Yan to kick his legs off, hit combinations and negate the height advantage with constant pressure, which will also allow him to keep the fight in the pocket where he’s better. Yan by 3rd round T/KO

Aljamain Sterling vs TJ Dillashaw

TJ and Aljo are more similar as fighters than you might think on first glance. Both are explosive wrestle kick-boxers who weaponise pace, volume striking and wrestling to create an effective offensive eco system. The variety and effectiveness of their games has allowed them to amass wins against a variety of opponents in a variety of ways. Aljo has grapple heavy wins against Yan and Sandhagen, but he also put forth a masterclass in striking volume against Muhnoz. Same way TJ, who’s known mostly for his striking, (see wins against Garbrant and Barao) showed against the likes of John Lineker and Joe Soto that his offensive wrestling and top game are very reliable weapons. 

That little rant obviously exists for me to explain to you guys how talented and diverse these two fighters are, but if I was to put the essence of this fight simply I’d say it’s gonna come down to two things - who can consistently win the footwork battle and who can assert their dominance in the grappling exchanges, because I think a straight forward kick-boxing match favours TJ. His ability to pressure, counter and throw combinations would be too much for Aljo to handle without being able to fall back on grappling, especially with his defensive fragilities. That’s why the other factors in this fight are so important, they’re Aljo’s best courses to victory so because of this, TJ will have to close off those avenues as often as possible. That’s not to slander Aljo’s striking, it's not perfect but it’s made dangerous by his pace and volume, so I think he can *somewhat* bridge the technical gap between himself and TJ in that area with work rate. If Aljo can strike with or in response to TJ’s pressure he could find success as TJ’s defence tends to fall apart after the first layer. He shifts his feet a lot but he tends to over extend at the hip while searching for angles and his head movement is average at best. That’s how Garbrant was able to drop him and that’s why I think Yan would smoke him, also. 

It’s worth nothing that Aljo went 3 for 49 across two fights against Petr Yan. While I don’t think TJ’s takedown defence is as good as Yan’s, that inefficiency is alarming and while I don’t expect Aljo to struggle as much, he has to be aware of and equipped for the wrestling threat coming back at him because TJ will take him down if the chance presents itself. In the first Yan fight he was taken down at will, mostly from the clinch. TJ isn’t as lethal in the clinch as Yan but he’s no slouch and he’s also great in open space, he has great anticipation and timing when shooting for singles or doubles. 

To bring this full circle I think TJ has the edge in striking as he’s more technical and has better shot selection, but Aljo can bridge the gap with his volume. Wrestling is a wash as Aljo is better in the clinch but TJ is better in open space, and both men are top athletes even if Aljo has had slight cardio issues in the past. I think TJ could only win a decision at this point, where I think Aljo could win a decision but also find himself in a situation where he wins by submission, as he is the better BJJ practitioner of the two. I’m picking Aljamain Sterling to win an exciting back and forth by 4th round submission. 

Charles Oliveira vs Islam Makhachev

The main event. Charles Oliveira vs Islam Makhachev promises to be an amazing fight. The contrast of styles is really interesting, I love seeing dominant wrestlers against BJJ aces because the chess match is always a great watch. If mma history is anything to go off, the wrestler usually prevails over the BJJ ace and while I expect that trend to continue, this fight won't be as black and white. 

Coming into this fight Charles might be on the best run mma has ever seen in terms of resume. Chandler, Dustin, Gaethje. Three insane athletes, three concussive KO artists. All three gave Charles some issues but eventually all three were soundly defused and finished. His ability to bounce back from a tough spot is impressive but I don’t know if Islam is the kind of fighter you can afford the luxury of an early advantage. On the other hand Islam’s resume does leave a lot to be desired, he does deserve this shot but it’s very much a case of “Charles has choked everyone else out” because getting a title shot off your last two wins being Bobby Green and Dan Hooker is ridiculous. Even if the wins were dominant. 

Cards on the table, Charles is probably the most lethal submission artist mma has ever seen. Off his back, against the cage, on top, he can do it all, his arsenal can’t be overstated and Islam has to be aware of this (he obviously is) because his area of dominance is on the ground. What I’m saying is that Islam knows that to win he’ll have to spend the entire fight in Charles’ area of domain. Islam just doesn’t strike well enough to keep Charles honest on the feet and eventually take him down, so he’ll have to fully commit to wrestling (which is probably what he was gonna do anyways).

For everything Charles does well, he does have some holes in his game. I initially thought Gaethje would beat him because not only does he have a habit of getting dropped, but he also concedes ground and allows his back to see the cage too often for my liking - something I figured Gaethje would exploit. If Charles consistently lets his back hit the cage, it could be a long night as I could see Islam dragging him down at will. This’ll also be the first time over 6 years that Charles has fought someone who’s just as comfortable with being on the ground as he is. Islam isn’t scared of stepping into the wheelhouse so the mental aspect of that can’t be ignored, Dustin and Gaethje looked petrified as soon as Charles got them down. 

A lot of submission grappling is about leverage and setting traps, as I said before Charles is a fucking ace on the ground but I trust Islam’s physicality, fight IQ and overall intensity to be enough to help him avoid any hairy situations on the ground. He’s great at shutting off limbs and limiting his opponents mobility while transitioning, he also has nasty ground and pound and he isn’t afraid to search for submissions if the opportunity presents itself, although I wouldn’t encourage that against Charles. 

The other day on twitter I said Islam would mop the floor with Charles, that was definitely an exaggeration, both fighters have solid avenues to victory and could well finish one another. I do think Islam wins this and I think he does it before the final bell. Islam has to be careful, he will want this fight on the ground as soon as possible but he can’t be overzealous, a lazy single leg could see him caught in a guillotine. Every round starts on the feet but I can’t see a situation where this fight doesn’t spend 90% on the ground or in some sort of grappling exchange. Whether it lasts 1 round or 5. I’m literally picking against Charles for the 4th fight in a row, but I’m going Makhachev by 3rd round TKO 

Written by Atlas8s